August’s 1,330 home shipments were in line with the 1,347 homes forecasted but did not beat expectations. Multi-section home shipments expanded over 2019 despite there being one less production day this year, but there appeared to be softening in single-section demand as shipments were down -13.5% from a year ago. Seasonally adjusted, shipments for the month were down -3.1% from July.
Total production for the state was robust though, and homes shipped out of state offset some of the in-state single section decline. The average of 81 homes produced per day for Texas plants was right in line with 2019, and the total of 1,701 homes built and shipped both in and out-of-state marked the highest production total hit since March. This continued expansion of MH production matches the responses seen in the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey that we’ve been collaborating with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University to collect.
Looking forward, shipments typically move down in September with the Labor Day holiday and the 30-calendar days both working to constrain totals, but this year the month has the same amount of production days as August, and it will have one more than September last year. Our model is not currently aware of those factors and is forecasting 1,268 shipments (+/- 255).
Take the over.
|Total for August:||588||742||1,330|
|Change from July (%):||2.8%||20.3%||11.9%|
|Change from July (Units):||16||125||141|
|Change from August of 2019 (%):||-13.5%||0.5%||-6.2%|
|Change from August of 2019 (Units):||-92||4||-88|
|Total for 2020 YTD:||4,915||5,653||10,568|
|Change from 2019 (%):||3.3%||5.4%||4.5%|
|Change from 2019 (Units):||159||292||451|
Here are the annual totals for manufactured home shipments in Texas from 2012 through 2019.