Texas Manufactured Housing Sales Market Analysis

July Preliminary Data

The early read has July even with 2019 with a small increase in single-section sales being offset by a small decrease in multi-section sales compared to a year ago.

July sales are lagging June by -13%, which is more than the seasonal average decline of roughly -4.6% when looking at average monthly sales over the series, but June is still on its record pace.

We are forecasting July sales at 1,362 (+/- 179).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for July: 484 433 917
Change from June: -6% -20% -13.2%
Change from July of 2019: 3.4% -3.6% 0%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for July: 164 64 228
Change from June: -1.8% -9.9% -4.2%
Change from July of 2019: 39% 42.2% 39.9%

June Data

June new home sales were up 9.7% over May and up 12.9% over June of 2019.

Single-section sales were up 14% over May and hit their highest monthly total for the year. The month is still on pace to finish at a June series high.

With the additional month of titling data our sales forecast for the month remains unchanged at 1,576, though the confidence interval has tightened to (+/- 94).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for June: 638 680 1,318
Change from May (%): 13.9% 6.1% 9.7%
Change from May (Units): 78 39 117
Change from June of 2019 (%): 15% 11.1% 12.9%
Change from June of 2019 (Units): 83 68 151

The median age for new home sales reverted towards the 2020 mean in the month of June. Single-sections are still trending older than the year-to-date average, but much less so than last month.

New Home Characteristics for JuneSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age (Days): 122.5 101 118
Average Square Feet: 1,108 1,749 1,439

Liberty takes the top spot again with Montgomery County not far behind it.

Top Five Counties for New Installs this MonthTotalChange (MoM%)
Liberty 69 35.3%
Montgomery 59 31.1%
Harris 46 7%
Travis 45 -2.2%
Bexar 39 62.5%

Used home sales show a slide due to last month’s community purchase in Howe, TX.

Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for June: 227 86 313
Change from May: -38.6% 3.6% -30.9%
Change from June of 2019: 32.7% 22.9% 29.9%

Annual Totals

With the inclusion of June’s sales to date, new home sales are now only -1.8% behind 2019. July is tracking flat over last year, but from this point forward a year ago, July 2019 sales titling accelerated so we’ll see if 2020 holds serve.

The updated model is forecasting 15,685 new home sales for 2020. (+/- 1,811)

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2020 through June: 3,420 3,846 7,266
Change from 2019 (%): -3.4% -0.3% -1.8%
Change from 2019 (Units): -122 -12 -134

The median number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s manufactured date for both single and multi-section homes are still at series highs.

New Home Characteristics for 2020SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age (Days): 114 99 107
Average Square Feet: 1,105 1,778 1,461

Montgomery County remains number one for new home installations on the year, with Liberty County hot on it’s tail.

Top Five Counties for New Installs this YearTotalChange (YoY%)
Montgomery 317 14.9%
Liberty 311 52.5%
Harris 280 -12.5%
Travis 249 4.2%
Ector 217 -31.8%

Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2020 through June: 1,495 510 2,005
Change from 2019 (%): 7% -21.5% -2.1%
Change from 2019 (Units): 98 -140 -42

May Revisions

RevisionsSinglesMultisTotal
New sales increased: +38 +58 +96
Used sales increased: +37 +12 +49

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past months sales, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 536 533 1069
February 542 608 1150
March 564 707 1271
April 539 616 1155
May 601 702 1303
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 198 78 276
February 254 80 334
March 231 98 329
April 175 71 246
May 408 96 504

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

July’s total is right in line with the past two years July sales at this same point historically.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.


Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.


Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.


Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2020-09-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.