Texas Manufactured Housing Sales Market Analysis

July Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in July titled to date are down a seasonally-adjusted -2.8% from the previous month and are down -16.4% from July of 2023. Rainfall was very high in July with Hurricane Beryl making landfall in southeast Texas on July 8th. The extreme weather event pushed new manufactured home sales down to their lowest seasonally adjusted total since Winter Storm Uri hit the state in February of 2021.

The raw new home total for the month is only beating July of 2017 sales.

The forecast for total new homes sold in July based on sales titled to date starts at 1,136 (+/- 86). The upper bound of the prediction interval is well below the 1,326 shipment total for the month, so aggregate inventory will have expanded more.

June Data

New home sales for June titled to date have moved down a seasonally adjusted -0.5% from the previous month and were down -20.8% on the raw total from June of 2023. Liberty, Montgomery, and Harris counties all ended up in the top three for new home installations again this month with sales picking up in Liberty pushing it to number one and declining declining sales in the larger Harris County pulling it down to third.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in June moved up with the additional titling data and is now at 1,280 (+/- 86). The upper bound of the prediction interval is just below the shipment total for the month, so there should be some additional increase in aggregate inventory for the month.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2024 are now down -5.4% from 2023 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Multi-section sales are still up year-over-year, but only by 21 homes.

At this point in the calendar for titles issued 2024 sales are trailing all years since 2017.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down for the fifth straight month to 15,274 (+/- 763).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are Waller, Cherokee, Hutchinson, Guadalupe, and Fort Bend.

Install counties with the biggest decline in new home placements from last year are Travis, Hidalgo, Harris, Hays, Montgomery, and Cameron.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Huffman, Fritch, Abilene, Greenville, and Pearland.

Mailing address cities with the largest decline in new home placements from last year are Austin, Kyle, Katy, Spring, and Mission.

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-09-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 9-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-09-16.

Here are the cumulative sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 9-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-09-16.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-09-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-09-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through May. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-09-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-09-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-09-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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