Texas Manufactured Housing Sales Market Analysis

Tags: News

Thursday, April 18, 2024 8:45:00 AM

February Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in February titled to date are currently up a seasonally-adjusted +24.4% over the previous month and up +8.7% from February of 2023.

The forecast for total new homes sold in February based on sales titled to date starts at 1,248 (+/- 79), which would put the 12-month moving average for retail sales through February right at the 12-month moving average for shipments.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 393 503 896
Change from January (Raw %): 24.4% 40.1% 32.7%
Change from January (Raw Units): 77 144 221
Change from January (SA %): 11.6% 41% 24.4%
Change from February of 2023 (%): -11.3% 32% 8.7%
Change from February of 2023 (Units): -50 122 72
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 95 51 146
Change from January (Raw %): 46.2% 104% 62.2%
Change from January (Raw Units): 30 26 56
Change from January (SA %): 5.4% 102% 31.9%
Change from February of 2023 (%): -3.1% 50% 10.6%
Change from February of 2023 (Units): -3 17 14

January Data

New home sales for January titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -3.5% from the previous month and down -5.2% from January of 2023.

Despite the sequential and year-over-year declines, the additional titling data has improved the outlook for January sales from where it was a month ago and the updated forecast for new homes sold moved up to 1,066 (+/- 79). The upper bound of the prediction interval is well below the shipment total for the month, so aggregate inventory for the state rose in January which is typical for the month.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 390 496 886
Change from December (Raw %): -1% -12.8% -8%
Change from December (Raw Units): -4 -73 -77
Change from December (SA %): -4% -3.3% -3.5%
Change from January of 2023 (%): -12.8% 1.6% -5.2%
Change from January of 2023 (Units): -57 8 -49
New Home Characteristics for JanuarySinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 98 103 101
Median Square Footage: 1,140 1,699 1,421
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Harris 43 -12.2%
Liberty 37 15.6%
Montgomery 37 -31.5%
Bexar 29 20.8%
Ector 24 14.3%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 109 39 148
Change from December (Raw %): -5.2% -39.1% -17.3%
Change from December (Raw Units): -6 -25 -31
Change from December (SA %): 11.2% -22.4% 2.4%
Change from January of 2023 (%): 23.9% -23.5% 6.5%
Change from January of 2023 (Units): 21 -12 9

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2024 are up +0.9% from the previous year for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Single-section home sales are running below 2023’s totals, while multi-section sales are up.

The 2,329 new homes sales titled to date marks the highest total in the 13 years we’ve been tracking.

The forecast for new home sales on the year opens at 16,500 (+/- 1,912).

The median ages for both single-section a multi-section homes for 2024 sales have moved to their lowest levels since 2021.

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are Midland, Harrison, Harris, Guadalupe, and Cherokee.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Conroe, Houston, Abilene, and Livingston.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2024 titled to date: 1,052 1,277 2,329
Change from 2023 (%): -7.8% 9.4% 0.9%
Change from 2023 (Units): -89 110 21
New Home Characteristics for 2024SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 95 93 94
Median Square Footage: 1,080 1,685 1,360
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Harris 131 14.9%
Montgomery 109 3.8%
Liberty 103 -1%
Bexar 76 13.4%
Bastrop 54 1.9%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2024 titled to date: 260 112 372
Change from 2023 (%): 18.2% 20.4% 18.8%
Change from 2023 (Units): 40 19 59

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 4-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-04-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-04-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-04-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through December. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-04-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-04-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-04-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.