Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Market Analysis

October Shipments

Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers continued to contract in October falling well below the previous five years of shipment totals for the month. The 1,320 total homes shipped marked a seasonally adjusted -11.1% decline from September and a -12.2% reduction from October of 2021.

The product mix remained majority single-section with those deliveries making up 52% of units shipped.

The 1,320 total homes was 158 homes below the bottom of the forecasted prediction interval, which at a 95% confidence level should occur approximately 5% of the time. There were eight plants whose production totals came in more than 50 homes below their trend lines.

ShipmentsSinglesMultisTotal
Total for October: 687 633 1,320
Change from September (Raw %): -15.3% -10% -12.8%
Change from September (Raw Units): -124 -70 -194
Change from September (SA %): -9.2% -9.8% -11.1%
Change from October of 2021 (%): 4.2% -25% -12.2%
Change from October of 2021 (Units): 28 -211 -183

View the Monthly Manufacturer Shipment Report.

October Production

Texas manufactured housing plant production mirrored shipments with the October total of homes coming in below the previous five years of production levels for the month. The seasonally adjusted decline of -11.3% from September was the largest month-to-month decline we’ve seen since the Winter storm in February of 2021 shutdown production for roughly a week.

Compared to October of 2021 the total production of homes was down -11.1% for the month, and the product mix tilt towards single-sections pushed the year-over-year difference in floors down even more with a -15.4% reduction from the previous year.

The raw production total was a whopping -601 homes below the mean modeled forecast, and like shipments came in beneath the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval. We told you the unders were a lock last month.

Texas Plant ProductionTotalShipped Out of TXMin Floors
Total for October: 1,809 516 2,426
Change from September (Raw %): -13.5% -13.9% -13.1%
Change from September (Raw Units): -282 -83 -366
Change from September (SA %): -11.3% NA -12.4%
Change from October of 2021 (%): -11.1% -7.7% -15.4%
Change from October of 2021 (Units): -227 -43 -442

View the Monthly Manufacturer Shipment Report.

November Outlook

The forecasting models have November shipments at 1,434 (+/- 264) and Texas factory production at 1,982 (+/- 327) homes. The drop in production last month has pulled these forecasts down, but with the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) highlighting further reductions in run rates and workweeks, take both unders once again.

View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for November.

Annual Totals

With the inclusion of October totals manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers for the year are up +13.8% over 2021 through this same point in the calendar year, and Texas manufactured housing factory production is up +12.9%.

The forecast for annual Texas shipments moves down to 19,436 (+/- 434) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 25,791 (+/- 526).

ShipmentsSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 YTD: 8,507 8,241 16,748
Change from 2021 (%): 27.4% 2.5% 13.8%
Change from 2021 (Units): 1,829 198 2,027
Texas Plant ProductionTotalShipped Out of TXMin Floors
Total for 2022 YTD: 22,081 5,896 30,062
Change from 2021 (%): 12.9% 9.6% 10.3%
Change from 2021 (Units): 2,523 514 2,808

View the Annual Manufacturer Shipment Report.

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