Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Market Analysis
February Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved up a seasonally-adjusted +8.1% in February from the previous month. The 1,523 homes shipped was a +50.9% increase over February of 2023 and the second highest total home shipped count for the month in our now 13-year series.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for February: | 714 | 809 | 1,523 |
| Change from January (Raw %): | 0.1% | 9.6% | 5% |
| Change from January (Raw Units): | 1 | 71 | 72 |
| Change from January (SA %): | 4.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% |
| Change from February of 2023 (%): | 45.7% | 55.9% | 50.9% |
| Change from February of 2023 (Units): | 224 | 290 | 514 |
February Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production came in well above the forecast moving up a seasonal-adjusted +12.9% in February compared to the previous month. The raw total of 1,953 homes was second only to 2022 like with shipments and represented an increase of +53.8%.
Shipments to out of state retailers remain elevated on a year-over-year basis.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for February: | 1,953 | 508 | 2,707 |
| Change from January (Raw %): | 8.7% | 13.9% | 9.6% |
| Change from January (Raw Units): | 157 | 62 | 238 |
| Change from January (SA %): | 12.9% | NA | 14.3% |
| Change from February of 2023 (%): | 53.8% | 76.4% | 52.4% |
| Change from February of 2023 (Units): | 683 | 220 | 931 |
March Outlook
The forecasting models have March shipments at 1,686 (+/- 312) and Texas factory production at 2,096 (+/- 315) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for March signaled further increases in run rates, but the trend line for February might be slightly inflated from the addition leap year day of production, I’d take the under on both.
Annual Totals
The shipment total for 2024 is currently up +45.3% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +44.6%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moves up to 18,188 (+/- 3,098) and forecasted Texas plant production moves up to 23,156 (+/- 3,529).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 1,427 | 1,547 | 2,974 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 43.6% | 46.9% | 45.3% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 433 | 494 | 927 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 3,749 | 954 | 5,176 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 44.6% | 50.5% | 43.2% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 1,156 | 320 | 1,562 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.