Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Market Analysis

October Shipments

Manufactured home shipments moved down slightly in October from the previous month with a drop in single-section units and an increase in homes headed out of state outweighing a small increase in multi-section deliveries. Compared to October of last year, the month was up for both single and multi-section homes and finished a combined 4.6% higher than 2020. There was one less business day this year than in 2020, so the increase in shipments per day was closer to a 9.6% expansion over last year.

ShipmentsSinglesMultisTotal
Total for October: 659 844 1,503
Change from September (Raw %): -2.8% 0.6% -0.9%
Change from September (Raw Units): -19 5 -14
Change from September (SA %): 2% -0.9% 1.4%
Change from October of 2020 (%): 3.1% 5.8% 4.6%
Change from October of 2020 (Units): 20 46 66

View the Monthly Manufacturer Shipment Report.

October Production

Even with the same number of business days as the previous month, Texas plants expanded production in October with total homes and the min number of floors moving up around 1.5% over the previous month. The totals were up over 7% compared to October of 2020, which as mentioned above had one more business day than we did in 2021, so Texas plant production run rates were up around 12.2% over 2020.

Texas Plant ProductionTotalShipped Out of TXMin Floors
Total for October: 2,036 559 2,868
Change from September (Raw %): 1.5% 1.5% 1.7%
Change from September (Raw Units): 31 8 47
Change from September (SA %): 1.9% 1.7% 1.8%
Change from October of 2020 (%): 7.1% 9% 7.7%
Change from October of 2020 (Units): 135 46 206

View the Monthly Manufacturer Shipment Report.

November Outlook

The forecasting model has November shipments at 1,418 (+/- 279), which depending on Thanksgiving holiday schedules is slightly below what last month’s shipment rate would suggest.

As we’ve expanded this report to better cover Texas plant production I’ve built out the time-series forecast for production totals and will now include that going forward. The forecast for November’s production total is 1,912 (+/- 333) which is also just below the total expected based on last month’s run rate alone.

The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey results once again showed a majority of respondents reporting increasing run rates for November.

Take the overs.

View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for November.

Annual Totals

Manufactured home production is up 12.7% on the year and shipments to Texas retailers are up 10.2%.

The annual forecast for shipments in the state moved down to 17,437 (+/- 461).

Texas plant home production is forecasted to finish the year at 23,226 (+/- 515).

ShipmentsSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2021 YTD: 6,678 8,043 14,721
Change from 2020 (%): 7.2% 12.7% 10.2%
Change from 2020 (Units): 450 907 1,357
Texas Plant ProductionTotalShipped Out of TXMin Floors
Total for 2021 YTD: 19,558 5,382 27,254
Change from 2020 (%): 12.7% 20.9% 12.7%
Change from 2020 (Units): 2,203 930 3,069

View the Annual Manufacturer Shipment Report.

Charts





Here are the annual totals for manufactured home shipments in Texas from 2012 through 2020.