Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Market Analysis

Tags: News

April Shipments

Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved up sequentially again in April by an unadjusted +3.6% over the previous month. The seasonally-adjusted numbers were near flat coming in at +0.1%, but the 1,621 homes shipped was a +45.9% increase over April of 2023 and trailed only 2022 shipments for the month.

The 12-month moving average for shipments continues to move upward above the trailing retail sales moving-average.

ShipmentsSinglesMultisTotal
Total for April: 743 878 1,621
Change from March (Raw %): 6.6% 1.3% 3.6%
Change from March (Raw Units): 46 11 57
Change from March (SA %): 3.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Change from April of 2023 (%): 56.1% 38.3% 45.9%
Change from April of 2023 (Units): 267 243 510

View the Monthly Manufacturer Shipment Report.

April Production

Texas manufactured housing plant production also moved up a raw +2.8% in April over the previous month for total number of homes, but run rates were slightly lower and the seasonally-adjusted total was down -0.7%. The raw total of 2,018 homes was a +37.9% increase over April of 2023.

Shipments to out of state retailers remain elevated on a year-over-year basis.

Texas Plant ProductionTotalShipped Out of TXMin Floors
Total for April: 2,018 513 2,817
Change from March (Raw %): 2.8% 1% 1.9%
Change from March (Raw Units): 55 5 52
Change from March (SA %): -0.7% NA -0.1%
Change from April of 2023 (%): 37.9% 24.2% 39%
Change from April of 2023 (Units): 555 100 790

View the Monthly Manufacturer Shipment Report.

May Outlook

The forecasting models have May shipments at 1,590 (+/- 223) and Texas factory production at 2,005 (+/- 230) homes.

The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for May showed some leveling off of run rates for respondents, but still indicated an overall increase for the state’s aggregate production per day.

The updated forecasting models we released last month were only off by +66 for shipments and -8 homes for production for April, but May should have the same number of production days and the survey still points toward expansion, so I’d take the over for both shipments and production.

View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for May.

Annual Totals

The shipment total for 2024 is currently up +39.4% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +36.3%.

The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moves up to 18,506 (+/- 2,260) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down slightly to 22,992 (+/- 2,614).

ShipmentsSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2024 YTD: 2,867 3,292 6,159
Change from 2023 (%): 39% 39.7% 39.4%
Change from 2023 (Units): 805 935 1,740
Texas Plant ProductionTotalShipped Out of TXMin Floors
Total for 2024 YTD: 7,730 1,975 10,758
Change from 2023 (%): 36.3% 35.6% 36.3%
Change from 2023 (Units): 2,057 518 2,866

View the Annual Manufacturer Shipment Report.

Charts





In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.