Before we look at July’s shipment data I’d like to take a moment to express my deepest sympathies to all of those effected by Hurricane Harvey. With the counties impacted stretching from Nueces to Newton, most Texans have family and friends who have been impacted, and I hope that all of you and all of your loved ones are safe.
It is impossible to know what the overall economic effect of Harvey will be with the wind damage and flooding events it has caused but the Federal Emergency Management Agency has announced a minimum of 156,000 damaged properties from floodwaters alone and Governor Greg Abbott estimates that the damage could reach $180 billion. Harris County contains 44% of FEMA’s estimated properties affected and is currently closed to oversize travel, along with many of the surrounding counties. Three of the top six counties for new installations for 2017 are in the list closed for oversized travel, so the industry is going to be heavily impacted in the short and long-term.
Before Hurricane Harvey struck we were hearing three month and longer back logs from many of our member manufacturers. Now with the additional request for homes from FEMA and individual homeowners looking to replace lost or damaged homes, we expect heavy demand pressure on the state’s factories and on those of neighboring states as well.
Shifting to shipments in July, the holiday left the month with just three weeks of production, so the large decline from June’s total was expected. Compared to July of 2016 however, both single-section and multi-section home shipments were up, 7.3% for singles and 40.5% for multi-section homes. Year-to-date shipments are up 16.9% over 2016, with both singles and multi-section homes showing solid growth. With Harvey hitting at the end of August, we don’t expect to see an impact on shipments until September.
|Total for July:||471||489||960|
|Change from June:||-33.19%||-31.13%||-32.16%|
|Change from July of 2016:||7.29%||40.52%||21.98%|
|Total for 2017 YTD:||4,795||4,081||8,876|
|Change from 2016 (%):||18.6%||14.86%||16.85%|
|Change from 2016 (Units):||752||528||1,280|