Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in November 2021 and the December Early Read

December Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date moved up a seasonally adjusted 9.3% in December over November of 2021. The year-over-year comparison is inflated as titling was playing catch up last year and was halted completely during Winter Storm Uri. The 853 homes sales titled to date are right at 2019 sales levels and marks a boost from the last two months of soft sales.

The forecast for new homes sold in December based on the sales titled to date is 1,294 (+/- 181).

November Data

November new home sales titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -5.2% from October’s soft sales total. With the December numbers picking back up in the early data above, there is increasing evidence that October and November of 2021 saw retailers and communities building up some inventory.

The median age of homes sold in November moved down to 83 days, which is lower than the 94 day median for 2021 as a whole, and in the charts section below you can see the shipment less sales total for October approaching a level not seen since FEMA units were arriving during the Hurricane Harvey relief effort.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in November moved up to 1,184 (+/- 95).

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2021 pulled closer to 2020 levels and are now trailing by just -0.2%.

The current forecast for new home sales on the year moved up to 16,087 (+/- 276).

Shipments for 2021 came in at 17,681 total homes, so the difference in shipments to sales for last year is expected to be approximately 1,594 homes.

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-02-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 2-14.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-02-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-02-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-02-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-02-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The fifth chart is the annual median for the number of days between a homes date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-02-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-02-14. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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