Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in May 2024 and the June Early Read

June Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in June titled to date are currently down a seasonally-adjusted -5.6% from the previous month and are down -24.1% from June of 2023. The year-over-year comparison is going against the strongest June sales month in the post global financial crisis era, but the sequential comparison is showing the second straight month of declining sales. Rainfall should not have been as big an issue for June as it was in May and July.

The forecast for total new homes sold in June based on sales titled to date starts at 1,268 (+/- 86). The upper bound of the prediction interval is just below the 1,394 shipment total for the month, so aggregate inventory likely expanded, but not by as much as it did in May.

May Data

New home sales for May titled to date moved down a seasonally adjusted -15.2% from the previous month and were down -20.6% on the raw total from May of 2023. The leading three counties for new home installations Harris, Montgomery, and Liberty were all down significantly as flooding in the region impacted sales.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in May moved up with the additional titling data and is now at 1,368 (+/- 86). The upper bound of the prediction interval is well below the shipment total for the month, so there should be some additional increase in aggregate inventory for the month.

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2024 are now down -4.2% from 2023 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Single-section home sales are still running below 2023’s totals, while multi-section sales are still running at their highest clip in the post global financial crisis era.

At this point in the calendar for titles issued 2024 sales are trailing both 2022 and 2023.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down for the fourth straight month to 15,649 (+/- 973).

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are Cherokee, Guadalupe, Hutchinson, Parker, and Taylor.

Install counties with the largest decline in new home placements from last year are Travis, Harris, Hidalgo, Cameron, and Hays.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Huffman, Fritch, Abilene, Burleson, and Tyler.

Mailing address cities with the largest decline in new home placements from last year are Austin, Kyle, Spring, McAllen, and Mission.

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 8-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through April. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-08-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

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