Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in January 2023 and the February Early Read

Tuesday, April 18, 2023 10:13:08 AM

February Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in February for titles issued to date are up a seasonally adjusted +1.6% over the elevated level of January, and sales are up +13% from February of 2022.

The forecast for new homes sold in February based on sales titled to date is 1,186 (+/- 79). The 95% prediction interval for February’s forecast is wholly above shipments for the month so we expect January or February to be the first month to outpace shipments since it last happened in July of 2021.

The median age for new single-section homes sold has increased by +29.5% from the median age in 2022 and is up 14% from where it was in December. We will keep watching median age changes for signs that inventory is getting younger.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 443 381 824
Change from January (Raw %): 12.7% -7.1% 2.6%
Change from January (Raw Units): 50 -29 21
Change from January (SA %): 8.2% -4.2% 1.6%
Change from February of 2022 (%): 27.3% 0% 13%
Change from February of 2022 (Units): 95 0 95
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 98 34 132
Change from January (Raw %): 30.7% -17.1% 13.8%
Change from January (Raw Units): 23 -7 16
Change from January (SA %): 1.2% -16.2% -1.3%
Change from February of 2022 (%): -19.7% -27.7% -21.9%
Change from February of 2022 (Units): -24 -13 -37

January Data

New home sales titled to date for January are up a seasonally adjusted +12.9% from the previous month, and are up +4.3% from January of 2022.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in January moved up slightly with the additional titling data to 1,115 (+/- 79). The forecast for new home sales is above shipments for the month.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 447 490 937
Change from December (Raw %): 8.5% -0.8% 3.4%
Change from December (Raw Units): 35 -4 31
Change from December (SA %): 10.3% 10.8% 12.9%
Change from January of 2022 (%): 7.2% 1.9% 4.3%
Change from January of 2022 (Units): 30 9 39
New Home Characteristics for JanuarySinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 145.5 105 126
Average Square Feet: 1,096 1,764 1,445
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Montgomery 39 30%
Liberty 38 5.6%
Harris 34 -8.1%
Bastrop 25 0%
Bexar 25 19%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 88 49 137
Change from December (Raw %): -41.3% -2% -31.5%
Change from December (Raw Units): -62 -1 -63
Change from December (SA %): -32.7% 22.8% -18.4%
Change from January of 2022 (%): -45.7% -29% -40.7%
Change from January of 2022 (Units): -74 -20 -94

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2023 are up +17.4% over 2022 for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar year.

Install counties with the most new home placements on the year are currently Montgomery, Ector, Wise, Bastrop, Brazoria and Cameron.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements are Odessa, Austin, Conroe, Bryan, and Cedar Creek.

The forecast for new home sales on the year opens at 16,215 (+/- 1,812).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2023 titled to date: 1,207 1,231 2,438
Change from 2022 (%): 20.6% 14.4% 17.4%
Change from 2022 (Units): 206 155 361
New Home Characteristics for 2023SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 145 107 128
Average Square Feet: 1,059 1,755 1,410
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Harris 123 15%
Montgomery 114 32.6%
Liberty 108 11.3%
Bexar 70 -9.1%
Bastrop 57 54.1%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2023 titled to date: 224 93 317
Change from 2022 (%): -30.7% -29.5% -30.3%
Change from 2022 (Units): -99 -39 -138

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-04-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 4-17.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-04-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-04-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-04-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. Retail sales have not beaten shipments in any month since July of 2021.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-04-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through December sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-04-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-04-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2023-04-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.