Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in December 2020 and January 2021 Early Read

Thursday, March 18, 2021 11:50:00 AM

January Preliminary Data

The first look at new manufactured home sales data for 2021 is showing a continuation from December of sales below where they were pre-pandemic, with January coming in -10.7% behind 2020. The seasonally adjusted totals showed stabilization and a slight expansion of 1.4% over December’s large contraction.

The raw total decline from December is to be expected as January is typically the lowest month for new home sales on the year.

The slow start to 2021 should continue through February as Uri would have had most lots closed for a good week, but we remain bullish on sales moving forward. Texas consumer search interest in manufactured homes for sale exploded in February setting an all-time high, and most Texans are starting to receive $1,400 stimulus checks from the recently passed Covid relief bill.

The early forecast for January new home sales is 996 +/- 178.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 306 355 661
Change from December (Raw %): -10.3% -18.2% -14.7%
Change from December (Raw Units): -35 -79 -114
Change from December (SA %): 10.3% -6.7% 1.4%
Change from January of 2019 (%): -19.3% -1.7% -10.7%
Change from January of 2019 (Units): -73 -6 -79
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for January: 81 47 128
Change from December (Raw %): -33.1% -30.9% -32.3%
Change from December (Raw Units): -40 -21 -61
Change from December (SA %): -21.7% -2.5% -14.4%
Change from January of 2019 (%): -34.7% -16.1% -28.9%
Change from January of 2019 (Units): -43 -9 -52

December Data

New manufactured home sales cooled in December of 2020 moving down a seasonally adjusted -11.1% from November and an unadjusted -7.8% compared to 2019. While Winter Storm Uri could still be impacting the data somewhat, the decline was evident before the storm and titling has had a month to get caught up since last month’s release.

Our final forecast for December new home sales moved up slightly to 1,172 +/- 91.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for December: 417 539 956
Change from November (Raw %): -11.5% -15.3% -13.6%
Change from November (Raw Units): -54 -97 -151
Change from November (SA %): -13.4% -12.9% -11.1%
Change from December of 2019 (%): -16.8% 0.6% -7.8%
Change from December of 2019 (Units): -84 3 -81
New Home Characteristics for DecemberSinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 124.5 109 119
Average Square Feet: 1,097 1,758 1,470
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Travis 54 -43.2%
Liberty 45 -22.4%
Bexar 43 53.6%
Montgomery 38 -25.5%
Harris 37 0%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for December: 167 87 254
Change from November (Raw %): 17.6% 35.9% 23.3%
Change from November (Raw Units): 25 23 48
Change from November (SA %): 11.7% 22.4% 15.5%
Change from December of 2019 (%): -9.7% -20.9% -13.9%
Change from December of 2019 (Units): -18 -23 -41

Annual Totals

At our last report release for 2020 annual sales came in at 3.7% over 2019 and we’re forecasting 16,420 +/- 552 total sales for the year after all title work has completed.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2020 titled to date: 7,550 8,425 15,975
Change from 2019 (%): 3% 4.2% 3.7%
Change from 2019 (Units): 221 342 563
New Home Characteristics for 2020SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 117 107 113
Average Square Feet: 1,099 1,777 1,457
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Liberty 736 39.7%
Montgomery 681 21.4%
Travis 614 21.1%
Harris 610 -5.1%
Bexar 444 3%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2020 titled to date: 2,988 1,126 4,114
Change from 2019 (%): 1.4% -17.6% -4.7%
Change from 2019 (Units): 40 -241 -201

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 587 545 1,132
February 593 621 1,214
March 621 729 1,350
April 583 648 1,231
May 658 777 1,435
June 795 837 1,632
July 695 751 1,446
August 711 808 1,519
September 697 735 1,432
October 687 732 1,419
November 506 703 1,209
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal
January 212 85 297
February 279 83 362
March 262 115 377
April 202 80 282
May 454 106 560
June 274 112 386
July 268 101 369
August 256 98 354
September 219 85 304
October 226 100 326
November 169 74 243

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 3-17. Sales had been at monthly series highs since June of 2020, but November and December have slowed organically and from the Uri titling disruption.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This is a new chart tracking the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month. Sales are expected to outpace shipments for October and November. December shipments are expected to beat December sales.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The fifth chart is the annual median for the number of days between a homes date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2021-03-17. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.