Texas Voted. Now What for Manufactured Housing?

I’ve spent much of the past week talking with TMHA members about the election. In fact, right after the election I was in Chicago at the National Communities Council where folks lined up to talk about the election results in Texas. The conversation usually starts with the results, but it always gets around to what happens when the legislature convenes in January? 

Who will be in a position to move any housing bill(s)? What does this mean for retailers? Are new landlord tenant laws coming that will impact manufactured home communities (MHC)? Which proposals that went nowhere last session might get a hearing this time? Does this mean rent control and right of first refusal are on the table? And what does this mean for TMHA’s legislative agenda? 

Ok, deep breath. It’s been nearly a week, so we have all calmed down. Now we can get to the business of objective analysis as we prepare for the coming Texas Legislative Session in January.

What Happened?

I’m not going to add my political punditry two-cents to this crowded field of voices on the various theories or other “Monday morning quarterbacking.” There are plenty of articles, cable shows, and podcasts that can fill that need for you. I’m just going to point out a few of the voting stats that caught my attention.

Turnout and Turnout by Party:

About 52% of registered Texans voted last Tuesday, up from about 46% in 2022 and below 61% in 2024. Democrats led by about 706,000 votes in the governor’s race and nearly 1.2 million votes in the U.S. Senate race.

Nationally, male voters swung 17 points to the Ds. Voters aged 18-29 swung 32 points, while Hispanic voters swung 28 points to the Ds.

The Border:

Not only did every border county go D, but the swings from the prior election were also, not even sure the word “massive” does it justice. Texas’s border counties swung 37.7 percentage points toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential election. Rep. Talarico won the border by nearly 45 points.

To highlight a few Texas border counties, compared to two years ago for the presidential election:

• Cameron County plus 40 swing to the D’s, 
• Hidalgo plus 45 swing to the D’s,
• Web plus 42 swing to the D’s.

Crosstabs and exit poll analysis will be debated and dissected, but it is undeniable that the cost of living, and I.C.E. were significant contributing factors in border districts and counties.

Rural Texas:

Last, quick takeaway was what happened or rather what didn’t happen in rural Texas this election. Recall that is was rural Texas showing up and voting R that saved Sen. Ted Cruz when he was challenged by Beto O'Rourke.  

Roughly 90 percent of the counties that saw a decrease in voter turnout were rural. Ds were able to close the gap with rural voters – Talarico doing the best on the ticket by about 10 points compared to 2018 and Beto O'Rourke’s numbers. Rural turnout was lower than it has been historically, with the rural vote only amounting to about 8 percent of the vote, down from normally about 10 percent.  

No voter is a monolith for a single issue, but it appears backlash from rural Texas on data centers and decreases in their local school funding where certainly a big part of the equation along with cost of living. The story for rural Texas was mostly about who choose to simply not vote at all.

Ok, it happened, what does this mean?

It means that all statewide offices for the foreseeable future of at least 4 years are in the hands of democrats. Th Ds now also control the Texas House with a pretty solid margin. We will have to get a bit of a civics reminder here but recall that the Texas House is made up of 150 members, 76 or more are needed for a majority.  

The incoming Texas House is projected to have 67 Republicans and 83 Democrats when the 90th Legislature convenes in January. That would be a net gain of 21 seats for Democrats compared with the start of the 2025 session.  

The House (unlike the Senate which I’m about to get to) elects its own Speaker of the House. The Speaker has the power to appoint committee chairs, make committee assignments, and determine which filed bills go to which committee. A Speaker needs 76, at least, votes to get control of that chamber. And based on current reports on pledged votes, it looks like Rep. Senfronia Thompson could be the next Speaker of the Texas House in January. If she is successful, she will decide who runs what committee, which members are on committees, the D to R composition of committees, and what committees every filed bill is referred to.

But the Texas Senate is different. The person who presides over the Senate is a statewide elected office – the Lt. Governor. Democrat Rep. Vicki Goodwin will be the next Lt. Governor. But Rs still hold the majority in the Senate by a total of 19 Rs to 12 Ds out a total of 31 senate seats. However, much of the historical power of the Lt. Governor to similarly control, like the Speaker of the House in the other chamber, committee chairs and assignments derives from the Senate rules, not state law or the Texas Constitution.  

Another civics lesson, the Lt. Governor’s powers in law and the state constitution are to preside over the Senate (she gets the gavel), cast any tie-breaking votes, succeeds automatically (like a Vice-President in the federal system) to become the governor if the governor steps down or becomes incapacitated, and is co-chair over the Legislative Budget Board and Legislative Council.  

So, what’s not on that list? Quite a lot actually, but in particular is the power to select committee chairs, committee assignments, and bill flow. Potentially all of that power, which has historically resided with the Lt. Governor, could be removed via day-one rules adoption by the majority of the Rs. If they were to change the rules, this could curtail the power more commonly associated with the role of the Lt. Governor.

We know the how and the why, but what will happen now?

In a word – uncertainty.  

No one knows. So be cautious when someone professes to know what is coming.

But we do know a few objective facts.  

Divided Government & Bipartisanship:

Divided Government & Bipartisanship:

The Ds have the House and Governor’s office. The Rs have the Senate. And if the Rs in the Senate adopt rules entrenching their control, they will really have complete command of that chamber in basically all legislative functions.

This very simply means that for any bill to pass it will need to survive the D’s House, the R’s Senate, and the D’s veto pen in the Governor’s mansion.  

Top-level political math is straightforward: D + R + D = compromise or stalemate.   

Bipartisanship is a good thing for the legislative goals of TMHA. This is how we have always chosen to operate. And we have done so with now a long-proven track record, when some argued that it would be easier or maybe more expedient to just cozy up to the majority party in power and ignore the minority party.

Plus, a lot of our legislative goals cross over political parties, in fact most do. Take for example the zoning bill that said cities can’t ban manufactured homes and must allow us somewhere from last session – SB 785. We got 83 votes on the House floor with a partisan breakdown of 54% Rs and 46% Ds. Note: 33 Rs and 18Ds voted against us on SB 785.

That tells us a couple of things: 1) that bill barely passed with just a 7-vote margin; and 2) it would not have passed if we were relying on only the support of one party.

I’ll also point out; of the 38 D votes on that bill – both Lt Governor-Elect Goodwin and Governor-Elect Hinojosa voted in favor of SB 785 as House members.

It is fair to assume that at a baseline it will be statistically much harder to pass any bill in 2027 that it has been. Since 2020 a bill, any bill, only has about a 14% chance to pass and not vetoed. We will know come June of 2027 what that percentage is for this coming session, but as one political commentator said, “I’d take the under.”

Affordability:

One of the driving voter issues and concerns for this election was on affordability. The Ds were more successful in their campaigns to win the confidence of the voters that they are better equipped or focused to address affordability issues.

But the Rs are concerned about affordability, as well.   

Affordability is TMHA’s strongest political argument and position. Our houses are half the cost per sqft compared to site-built. Plus, we are essentially the only housing game in any town that can produce homes below $150,000 or that can keep a person’s housing costs at or below 35% of their income, including those at or near the median income ranges.

Our greatest strength is the highest priority for well more than a majority of the legislators – both D and R - coming to Austin in January.  

Our political advocacy will center around - What can we offer in terms of laws and policy that improve our affordability and make an affordable home a practical option for more Texans.

So now we have two advantages – bipartisan necessity and everyone focused on affordability.  

Ok, that’s enough kumbaya and all will be nothing but bipartisan handholding while rainbows and unicorns rain down. It won’t.  

Does this mean we get everything we want, of course not. Does it mean we have to compromise, yes. Do we have to narrowly tailor our proactive goals to the political realities of bipartisan support, yes. It probably also means that anything that has the appearance of being anything other than pro-consumer (including pro-tenant) is going to drag down any bill, probably to its demise, in the House.

For members interested specifically about the possible impact on landlord/tenant laws, I’d encourage you to read, “What a New Texas House Could Mean for Community Owners.”

Change, uncertainty, new faces and new leaders - What does that all add up to?

It's time to get to work.