Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in February 2024 and the March Early Read

Thursday, May 16, 2024 11:31:09 AM

March Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales in March titled to date are currently down a seasonally-adjusted -5.4% from the previous month and down -8.5% from March of 2023. The 1,087 new home sales titled to date for the month is actually the third highest total for the month in our 13 year series, but the sequential comparison is against the best selling February and the year-over-year comparison is against the highest selling March, so what appears to be a solid sales month is getting a little over shadowed by two 13-year highs.

The forecast for total new homes sold in March based on sales titled to date starts at 1,507 (+/- 98).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for March: 515 572 1,087
Change from February (Raw %): 31% 13.7% 21.3%
Change from February (Raw Units): 122 69 191
Change from February (SA %): 4.1% -16% -5.4%
Change from March of 2023 (%): -8.2% -8.8% -8.5%
Change from March of 2023 (Units): -46 -55 -101
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for March: 144 53 197
Change from February (Raw %): 51.6% 3.9% 34.9%
Change from February (Raw Units): 49 2 51
Change from February (SA %): 13.9% -30.7% -4.1%
Change from March of 2023 (%): 9.9% 8.2% 9.4%
Change from March of 2023 (Units): 13 4 17

February Data

New home sales for February titled to date are up a seasonally adjusted +9.9% from the previous month and up +8.2% from February of 2023.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in February was roughly unchanged at 1,241 (+/- 98). The upper bound of the prediction interval is well below the shipment total for the month, so aggregate inventory for the state rose in February which is typical for the month.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 455 609 1,064
Change from January (Raw %): 16.7% 22.8% 20.1%
Change from January (Raw Units): 65 113 178
Change from January (SA %): 10.2% 20.5% 9.9%
Change from February of 2023 (%): -14.5% 35% 8.2%
Change from February of 2023 (Units): -77 158 81
New Home Characteristics for FebruarySinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 95 85 92
Median Square Footage: 1,080 1,685 1,400
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Harris 54 25.6%
Liberty 47 23.7%
Montgomery 34 -5.6%
Bastrop 33 106.2%
Bexar 27 -6.9%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 126 72 198
Change from January (Raw %): 15.6% 84.6% 33.8%
Change from January (Raw Units): 17 33 50
Change from January (SA %): -8.1% 70.9% 3.6%
Change from February of 2023 (%): -3.8% 28.6% 5.9%
Change from February of 2023 (Units): -5 16 11

Annual Totals

New home sales for 2024 are now behind -1.3% from the previous year for all retail sales titled through this point in the calendar. Single-section home sales are still running below 2023’s totals, while multi-section sales are still up.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down to 16,247 (+/- 1,657).

The median age for multi-section homes sold in 2024 moved lower.

Install counties with the most additional new home placements over last year are Midland, Guadalupe, Harrison, Cherokee, and Parker.

Mailing address cities with the most new home placements over last year are Midland, Huffman. Abilene, Marshall, and Wilmer.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2024 titled to date: 1,610 1,947 3,557
Change from 2023 (%): -9.8% 7% -1.3%
Change from 2023 (Units): -175 128 -47
New Home Characteristics for 2024SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 101 86 95
Median Square Footage: 1,100 1,680 1,369
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Harris 198 -3.4%
Montgomery 152 -6.7%
Liberty 142 -7.2%
Bexar 107 1.9%
Ector 82 -4.7%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2024 titled to date: 459 189 648
Change from 2023 (%): 17.7% 3.8% 13.3%
Change from 2023 (Units): 69 7 76

Revised Monthly Totals

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 418 521 939 -4.1
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 122 41 163 2.5

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-05-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

The first chart shows monthly sales totals for each year with only titles processed through 5-15.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-05-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-05-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-05-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through January. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-05-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-05-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2024-05-15. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.