Texas Manufactured Housing Sales in February 2022 and the March Early Read

Tuesday, May 17, 2022 11:40:38 AM

March Preliminary Data

New manufactured home sales titled to date are up a seasonally adjusted +3.4% in March over the previous month and up a raw 1.2% over March of 2021. The gains came from an increase in multi-section home sales while single-section sales were lower than a year ago.

March new home sales are trailing only 2019 at this point in time.

The forecast for new homes sold in March based on the sales titled to date is 1,572 (+/- 195).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for March: 505 568 1,073
Change from February (Raw %): 45.1% 48.7% 47%
Change from February (Raw Units): 157 186 343
Change from February (SA %): -3% 7.8% 3.4%
Change from March of 2021 (%): -10.6% 14.7% 1.2%
Change from March of 2021 (Units): -60 73 13
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for March: 182 71 253
Change from February (Raw %): 49.2% 54.3% 50.6%
Change from February (Raw Units): 60 25 85
Change from February (SA %): 6.8% -4% 5.9%
Change from March of 2021 (%): 7.1% -23.7% -3.8%
Change from March of 2021 (Units): 12 -22 -10

February Data

February new home sales titled to date are down a seasonally adjusted -5.6% from January, and are up +18.6% from February of 2021. Note that sales were lowered last year by the impact of Winter storm Uri. February 2022 sales are running behind 2020, 2019 and 2016, and appear to have been weaker than January and March sales.

The updated forecast for total new homes sold in February moved down to 1,089 (+/- 99), but the downward movement was due to a tuning change to our early release regression model that lowered it’s forecasts across the board.

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 423 487 910
Change from January (Raw %): 1.4% 1.2% 1.3%
Change from January (Raw Units): 6 6 12
Change from January (SA %): -3.9% -5.8% -5.6%
Change from February of 2021 (%): 7.9% 29.9% 18.6%
Change from February of 2021 (Units): 31 112 143
New Home Characteristics for FebruarySinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 106 99.5 102.5
Average Square Feet: 1,099 1,833 1,492
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (MoM%)
Harris 43 26.5%
Bexar 34 -5.6%
Liberty 34 -17.1%
Montgomery 29 -23.7%
Atascosa 20 53.8%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for February: 152 60 212
Change from January (Raw %): -6.2% -13% -8.2%
Change from January (Raw Units): -10 -9 -19
Change from January (SA %): -19.3% -15.2% -25.9%
Change from February of 2021 (%): 7% -18.9% -1.9%
Change from February of 2021 (Units): 10 -14 -4

Annual Totals

New home sales in 2022 are currently up 5.5% over the previous year for all retail sales titled to date. Single-sections are now trailing 2021 while multi-section sales are up 12.2%.

The forecast for new home sales on the year moved down slightly to 15,936 (+/- 2,575).

New SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 titled to date: 1,587 1,799 3,386
Change from 2021 (%): -1.2% 12.2% 5.5%
Change from 2021 (Units): -19 195 176
New Home Characteristics for 2022SinglesMultisTotal
Median Age of Home (Days): 108 105 106
Average Square Feet: 1,113 1,823 1,490
Top Five Counties for New InstallsTotalChange (YoY%)
Harris 153 15.9%
Liberty 142 -12.3%
Bexar 137 24.5%
Montgomery 129 -9.2%
Travis 84 -46.8%
Used SalesSinglesMultisTotal
Total for 2022 titled to date: 677 256 933
Change from 2021 (%): 27% -4.5% 16.5%
Change from 2021 (Units): 144 -12 132

Because titles continue to come in for past sales months, here are all prior months for the year and what their current sales totals are at this report release.

New Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 440 530 970 7.1
Used Sales MonthSinglesMultisTotal(YoY%)
January 180 75 255 2

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-05-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Charts

This first chart shows what monthly sales totals look like for each year in the series for titles processed through 5-16.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-05-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The second chart shows monthly totals at the official release date for each month. All of these totals have moved up since release, and the most recent totals can be seen in the chart below this one.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-05-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The third chart is all sales data in the series to date with single-section and multi-section home totals plotted.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-05-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart tracks the difference between shipments and sales each month. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-05-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

Here are the 12-month moving averages for shipments and retail sales through January sales. Because late title work pushes recent sales totals up, I’m including data through the previous officially released sales month, but the last several months will move up as title work continues to be processed.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-05-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

This chart displays the annual median for the number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s date of manufacture. Prior to 2/22/21 this chart included sales from manufacturers to communities, it now only includes sales from licensed retailers.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-05-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.

The final chart is for all used monthly retail sales data. The outliers are typically the result of community purchases were titles move from the previous to the new MHC owner.

Note: These calculations are based on titles processed by TDHCA through 2022-05-16. Late submissions will impact these figures going forward.