Texas Manufactured Housing Market Report - Sales Data & Analysis

First Read

July is only about 52% titled at this point, so its title count alone says little, but we can use installation reports to fill the gap. Installers’ Form-T filings reach TDHCA within days of the install, and a home’s installation tends to land a few days before its recorded transfer of ownership date. So the installations already reported for July give an early gauge of the month’s sales before the titles arrive.

Blending July’s titles issued to date with its installation reports points at roughly 1,500 new home sales (± 140) for the month. This first read will firm up considerably by next month’s early look.

The plot below shows how this method has scored so far since the shift to using final transfer of ownership dates for title applications. Across those 8 months the average miss is 58 homes, about 5% of a typical month.

Note: Every diamond is the model’s First Read for that month — the estimate made about two and a half weeks after the month ends, before most of its titles have arrived. Months on the solid line are old enough for their totals to be effectively final, showing how those early calls scored. For the months still accumulating titles, the dashed line traces the titles actually issued so far — running counts still climbing toward their finals — and the shaded band shows the range where each is currently expected to settle, incorporating everything reported since its First Read.

Early Look

New manufactured home sales for June 2026 titled to date are so far down a seasonally-adjusted 5.4% from the previous month but are running a still cadence-inflated 31.9% above June of 2025. We’re getting close to where changes in retailer behavior were starting to take effect a year ago, but we don’t think we’re quite there yet with the titled to date sales for 2025 still not showing any early upward drift in the later months.

Titles now arrive quickly enough under the transfer-based cadence that about 92% of a sale month’s eventual total is already on the books at this point in the reporting cycle. That puts June on pace to settle near 1,360 new home sales (± 60) once the remaining titles are issued. That would represent an increase of 19.2% over June of 2025’s final total, with even the lower bound safely above it.

As you can see in the plot below the early June sales counts are still running above the previous years, as are our titled-to-date sales for July.

The comparisons in the table below are based on where the previous month’s numbers were when originally reported on one month ago.

TMHA Member’s Retailer Annual Sales Totals Report

Titled on Time

New home sales for May titled to date were up a seasonally adjusted 9.6% from the previous month and are up 8.3% on the raw total from May of 2025.

The 1,315 homes sold in May snapped a two-report streak of year-over-year declines, confirming the pickup that the May early look flagged a month ago.

With May roughly 98% complete at publication, expect the month to settle near 1,350 new home sales (± 10) as the last titles are issued.

Two cautions on the year-over-year math. That settled estimate would still land just below May 2025’s final total of 1,386, as the faster titling cadence is boosting the raw comparison, but starting with next month’s report the comparisons will begin running against the July–November 2025 stretch when the enforcement change pulled a bulge of catch-up issuance forward, so raw year-over-year readings could look soft through the November report for purely mechanical reasons.

While the plot above contains revised totals for previous months the comparisons in the table below are based on where the previous month’s numbers were when released one month ago.

TMHA Member’s Retailer Monthly Sales Totals Report

Titled Installation Location Trends

Here are the month-over-month changes for the top 10 counties for new home sales over the past five on-time report months, ranked by their total placements across that span.

May reversed April’s pullback. Eight of the top ten counties gained, with Brazoria up 87%, Smith 42%, Ector 33% and Liberty 31%. Only Montgomery (down 14%) and Bastrop (down 8%) declined.

TMHA Member’s Retailer Annual Sales Total per County Report

Moving Averages

The 12-month moving average for shipments peaked in July of 2025 for this last production expansion cycle and has drifted lower since with the exception of small upturns in March and June of 2026.

The 12-month moving average for retail sales now runs through May 2026. Late title work should no longer push recent months higher the way it did in prior years, and the spread between the two lines reflects in part the community channel we flagged last report. A large stock of new community housing inventory, still being added to through new developments, will only reach a title as those homes are absorbed through sales and rentals.

To help visualize this, we have added the 12-month average of new home installation reports, which runs through July. Installer reporting captures about nine in ten titled homes as some homes are sold to logistics companies and used for commercial purposes. The plot shows where installations broke above titles in 2025 and remain there. That is largely new community build out that will ultimately pull titles up as they are absorbed.

THMA Public Shipment Report