Manufactured home shipments of single-section units softened in October moving down 5% from September even though October had one additional day of production. Multi-section shipments expanded and were up 16.5% over the previous month, which was enough to push total shipments for the month over September by the raw numbers, and the two months were about even after seasonal adjustment.
October was down across the board from 2019 but the year-over-year decline was due to 2020 having one less production day than 2019 and continued growth in homes shipped out of the state. October saw 513 homes shipped out of Texas, which is the highest interstate total hit since November of 2017. Adding those homes shipped out with in-state shipments brought total production for Texas manufactured housing plants to 1,901 homes for the month. This was right in line with last year’s October production peak of 1,908, but was achieved with higher productivity over less working days.
From our continued work with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M on the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) we expect run rates for floor production to continue to increase through the last two months of the year.
Our exponential smoothing model is forecasting 1,305 (+/- 258) shipments for November and with google searches for a “mobile home for sale” at seasonal highs, new titles processed by TDHCA following the same pattern through November, and new home sales beating or meeting seasonal highs since June, we expect the manufacturing plants to be very busy for the foreseeable future. Wall street may have noticed.
|Total for October:||639||798||1,437|
|Change from September (%):||-5.2%||16.5%||5.7%|
|Change from September (Units):||-35||113||78|
|Change from October of 2019 (%):||-9.9%||-1.4%||-5.3%|
|Change from October of 2019 (Units):||-70||-11||-81|
|Total for 2020 YTD:||6,228||7,136||13,364|
|Change from 2019 (%):||1.8%||4.1%||3%|
|Change from 2019 (Units):||111||283||394|
Here are the annual totals for manufactured home shipments in Texas from 2012 through 2019.