Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in November 2022
November Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers continued to contract in November coming in a seasonally-adjusted -4.1% lower than the previous month. The 1,252 homes shipped for the month was down -18.8% from November of 2021.
The product mix shifted back towards multi-section homes with those deliveries making up 52% of units shipped.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for November: | 601 | 651 | 1,252 |
| Change from October (Raw %): | -12.5% | 2.8% | -5.2% |
| Change from October (Raw Units): | -86 | 18 | -68 |
| Change from October (SA %): | -16.2% | 9.4% | -4.1% |
| Change from November of 2021 (%): | -21.9% | -15.6% | -18.8% |
| Change from November of 2021 (Units): | -169 | -120 | -289 |
November Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production was also down coming in a seasonally-adjusted -6.3% below the previous month and -18.5% below last year’s production total for the month. The product mix shift back to multi-sections pulled the headline totals lower than the floor data, which came in a seasonally-adjusted -0.7% below October.
The forecasting models for both shipments and production have started to better integrate the downward trend of the industry with November totals for production and shipments landing back in the lower half of the 95% prediction intervals.
Six different plants had November production levels come in more than 50 homes below their production trend lines.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for November: | 1,657 | 445 | 2,329 |
| Change from October (Raw %): | -8.4% | -13.8% | -4% |
| Change from October (Raw Units): | -152 | -71 | -97 |
| Change from October (SA %): | -6.3% | NA | -0.7% |
| Change from November of 2021 (%): | -18.5% | -18.5% | -16.2% |
| Change from November of 2021 (Units): | -375 | -101 | -450 |
December Outlook
The forecasting models have December shipments at 1,168 (+/- 216) and Texas factory production at 1,612 (+/- 268) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for that month has run rates declining once again.
Take the under on both.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for December.
Annual Totals
With the inclusion of November totals manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers for the year are up +10.7% over 2021 through this same point in the calendar year, and Texas manufactured housing factory production is up +9.9%.
With one more month of data left in the year, both shipments and production are currently above their 2021 year end totals per TDHCA’s HUD Reports. After the data comes in for next month, 2022 should certainly hit the highest annual totals since 2001.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments moves down to 19,168 (+/- 218) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 25,350 (+/- 265).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 9,108 | 8,892 | 18,000 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 22.3% | 0.9% | 10.7% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,660 | 78 | 1,738 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 23,738 | 6,341 | 32,391 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 9.9% | 7% | 7.9% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 2,148 | 413 | 2,358 |
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