Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Report July 2025 - Market Analysis & Data
Rob Ripperda
July Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved up in July a seasonally-adjusted +3.1% from the previous month. The 1,400 total homes shipped for the month was just above the point forecast and represented a +5.6% increase over July of 2024.
The year-over-year increase was boosted by an additional production day on this year’s business day calendar compared to July of 2024. We mistakenly reported June up one calendar day last month, but the 30th fell on the Monday of the Fourth of July week that most plants are closed for observance of the holiday. In fact updating the forecast model with the elevated June shipment rate would have put the forecast just seven homes below July’s total.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for July: | 594 | 806 | 1,400 |
| Change from June (Raw %): | -4.7% | -10.1% | -7.9% |
| Change from June (Raw Units): | -29 | -91 | -120 |
| Change from June (SA %): | 2.5% | 0.4% | 3.1% |
| Change from July of 2024 (%): | 2.8% | 7.8% | 5.6% |
| Change from July of 2024 (Units): | 16 | 58 | 74 |
Monthly Manufacturer Shipments
July Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production moved up a seasonally-adjusted +3.7% in July from the previous month and came in at the highest seasonally-adjusted total for 2025 to date. The 1,838 homes produced was +89 homes above last month’s point forecast, though that number drops to +8 after the June calendar day count was updated to the right total.
July was up +7.2% from July of 2024 and was even higher than the previous July of 2022 peak.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for July: | 1,838 | 533 | 2,579 |
| Change from June (Raw %): | -4.7% | 2.7% | -5.7% |
| Change from June (Raw Units): | -91 | 14 | -156 |
| Change from June (SA %): | 3.7% | NA | 3.9% |
| Change from July of 2024 (%): | 7.2% | 15.6% | 6.6% |
| Change from July of 2024 (Units): | 123 | 72 | 160 |
Monthly Manufacturer Shipments
August Outlook
The forecasting models have August shipments at 1,563 (+/- 220) and Texas factory production at 1,989 (+/- 223) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for August had run rates moving lower for an estimated third of the market.
With the TMHS pointing towards a decline in run rates I’d call the under for shipments but pencil production as a coin flip once again.
The August production calendar has one less day than average and the TMHS indicates some amount of pullback in production, so expect a seasonal-adjusted decline.
Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results
Annual Totals
The shipment total for the year is now up +1.2% above 2024 and Texas plant production moved ahead for total homes by +0.7%. The min number of floors built this year to date in the state rose to 3% over 2024.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2025 moved up to 18,368 (+/- 1,292) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 23,592 (+/- 1,511).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2025 YTD: | 4,305 | 6,327 | 10,632 |
| Change from 2024 (%): | -8.8% | 9.4% | 1.2% |
| Change from 2024 (Units): | -416 | 544 | 128 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2025 YTD: | 13,445 | 3,572 | 19,217 |
| Change from 2024 (%): | 0.7% | 1.6% | 3% |
| Change from 2024 (Units): | 99 | 57 | 552 |
Charts
January 2025 appears to be the 12-month moving average peak for shipments this production cycle.