Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Report - Market Analysis & Data

June Shipments

Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved up 0.3% in June on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the prior month. Year over year, shipments were 7.3% above June of 2025 with the same number of production days as last June on the calendar, and the rate of homes shipped per business day hit its highest mark since July of 2022.

The 1,631 total homes shipped for the month landed in the upper half of the prediction interval at 138 homes above the point forecast from last month.

Single-section shipments led the way, beating June of 2025 by 13.3%.

Monthly Manufacturer Shipments

June Production

Texas manufactured housing plant production moved up in June 2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the previous month. The total of homes produced was 1,951 and the minimum number of floors was 2,800.

Year over year, total homes were 1.1% above June of 2025, and minimum floors were 2.4% above the previous year.

The per-business-day rate for home production hit its highest level since September of 2022 and delivered the first year-over-year beat for production in 2026.

The production total landed in the upper side of the prediction interval, 205 homes above last month’s point forecast.

June’s double-digit raw gain over May was pushed up mostly by a complete shift back to single-section only production from a high volume TMHA member facility.

Out-of-state deliveries remain the soft spot: they rebounded 14.1% from May but were still 17.3% below last June, and are the main drag on total production this year.

Monthly Manufacturer Shipments

July Outlook

The forecasting models have July shipments around 1,506 (1,306–1,707) and Texas factory production around 1,926 (1,701–2,150).

The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) signaled a continued increase in run rates for July.

July matches June’s 20-day production calendar, and the TMHS points toward further expansion in run rates, so the overs look good. A large swing back to more multi-section units in the mix would make a production beat less likely, however.

We are starting to incorporate permit data into our research and the factory-out permit count currently implies July shipments of roughly 1,575 (1,380–1,770). Its first out-of-sample reading called June within 50 homes.

Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results

Retail Sales Comparison

The 12-month moving average for shipments peaked in July of 2025 for this last production expansion cycle and has trended lower since despite the occasional monthly uptick, but June’s inclusion marked a second increase and we expect July to follow suit, so we’ll see if that trend extends through August.

The 12-month moving average for retail sales is currently plotted through March 2026. Late title work will continue to push the most recent months higher, though not to the extent seen in prior years. There is a lot of new community housing inventory out there and still being added to through new developments which explains some of the spread we’ve seen between shipments and titled sales.

The demand side started to firm as summer began: July saw more new manufactured home titles issued than any month in nearly six years, apart from last October’s title-filing catch-up. As those sales get picked up in the retail average, the recent gap between the two lines should start to narrow.

Retail Sold Orders

The share of homes sold within a month of manufacture is a good indicator of homes built to order rather than for dealer inventory. The percentage ran near 55.9% in 2023 and has since settled around 46% on a trailing-12-month basis. The remaining balance is homes built for retail lots and community developments for a future buyer. The most recent complete reading is March 2026.

Year to Date

Annual Totals