Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Report - Market Analysis & Data

September Shipments

Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved down 2.5% in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the prior month. Year over year, shipments were 1.7% above September of 2025 with the same number of production days as last September on the calendar.

The 1,403 total homes shipped for the month landed in the lower half of the prediction interval at 55 homes below the point forecast from last month.

Single-section shipments fell 14.4% from August on a seasonally-adjusted basis and were 4.8% below September of 2025. Multi-section shipments rose 2.6% on the month, seasonally adjusted, and were 5.8% above on the year. The multi-section share of the product mix moved up to 64% from 58% in August.

The plot below tracks the multi-section share of monthly shipments against its 12-month average.

Monthly Manufacturer Shipments

September Production

Texas manufactured housing plant production moved down 1.7% in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the previous month. The total of homes produced was 1,878 and the minimum number of floors was 2,703.

Year over year, total homes were 3.8% above September of 2025, and minimum floors were also 4.8% above the previous year.

The production total landed in the upper side of the prediction interval, 74 homes above last month’s point forecast.

Out-of-state deliveries rose 14.6% from August and 7% over last September, the most homes headed out of state since May of 2024. The share of production headed out-of-state climbed to 30%, the highest since October of 2023.

Monthly Manufacturer Shipments

October Outlook

The forecasting models, which blend the production-rate models with factory-out permits, have October shipments around 1,562 (1,419–1,704), Texas factory production around 1,966 (1,840–2,092), and minimum floors around 2,850 (2,680–3,030).

The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) reported production run rates rising across 40% of the weighted sample in October, narrower than September, with 84% expecting higher run rates over the six months ahead.

The survey had run rates increasing across more than half the sample for September, and production did come in 3.8% above September of 2025, though it slipped 1.7% from August on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results

Placements Comparison

The plot below compares the 12-month moving average of shipments into Texas with placements (the first appearance of each new home in TDHCA records, by installation report or by title, whichever comes first). Placements counts a home once, whether it was sold at retail and titled or placed into a community’s inventory, so it is the broadest signal we have for new homes that are sited.

Some of the difference in the spread is due to homes sold into Texas by retailers in Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico, roughly 500 to 900 a year.

Retail Sold Orders

The share of homes sold within a month of manufacture is a good indicator of homes built to order rather than for dealer inventory. The percentage ran near 55.9% in 2023, then averaged 47.5% in 2024 and 47.6% in 2025. The remaining balance is homes built for retail lots and community developments for a future buyer.

The most recent complete reading is May 2026. The 12-month average has been drifting lower through 2026, from 47.5% at the end of 2025 to 46.2% in May. The months after that are still filling in as their titles are reported (dashed in the plot), and so far they put it near 45%, which would be the lowest since April 2023.

Year to Date

Annual Totals