Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in March 2023
March Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers expanded in March despite the seasonally-adjusted total moving down -2.3% from the previous month. The number of homes shipped per business day moved up +8.7% from February, and the 1,261 total homes shipped came in on the high side of the forecast interval for the first time since June of 2022. The seasonally-adjusted decline is due to a combination of the model over estimating the seasonal factor for March based off the prior two years seeing large run rate increases, and a product mix shift towards more multi-section homes this month.
With the uptick in production March shipments moved just above 2019’s total, but remains a full -37.9% below March of 2022.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for March: | 592 | 669 | 1,261 |
| Change from February (Raw %): | 20.8% | 28.9% | 25% |
| Change from February (Raw Units): | 102 | 150 | 252 |
| Change from February (SA %): | -3.9% | -2.8% | -2.3% |
| Change from March of 2022 (%): | -40.9% | -34.9% | -37.9% |
| Change from March of 2022 (Units): | -410 | -358 | -768 |
March Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production started expanding in March with the seasonally-adjusted total moving up +2.1% from the previous month and the seasonally-adjusted floor data up +2.7%. In comparison to March of 2022 the raw total of homes was down -37.6% and the floors minimum was down -37.3%.
The 1,617 total homes produced was +82 homes above the forecast for the month as Texas plant production moved just above 2019’s level.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for March: | 1,617 | 410 | 2,251 |
| Change from February (Raw %): | 27.3% | 42.4% | 26.7% |
| Change from February (Raw Units): | 347 | 122 | 475 |
| Change from February (SA %): | 2.1% | NA | 2.7% |
| Change from March of 2022 (%): | -37.6% | -34.4% | -37.3% |
| Change from March of 2022 (Units): | -973 | -215 | -1341 |
April Outlook
The forecasting models have April shipments at 1,158 (+/- 217) and Texas factory production at 1,494 (+/- 269) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for April signaled run rates had started to increase but April will have one less production day in 2023 than it did in 2022.
I’d call the over/under a coin flip.
Annual Totals
The year-to-date annual shipment total is down -35.3% and Texas plant production is down -37.2%.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved up to 13,384 (+/- 1,938) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 17,313 (+/- 2,328). Those totals would put 2023 around 2015 levels.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 1,586 | 1,722 | 3,308 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -37.8% | -33.2% | -35.5% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -963 | -856 | -1,819 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 4,210 | 1,044 | 5,865 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -37.2% | -40.1% | -36.3% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -2,499 | -698 | -3,340 |
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