Manufactured home shipments expanded in July coming in 106 homes above our forecast and landing at the second highest total for the month in our series. Single-section homes fueled the growth with large year-over-year gains while multi-sections posted modest gains.
With most manufacturers taking a week off for Independence Day, July is typically the lowest producing month on the year. Seasonally adjusting the total though July’s numbers hit the highest mark we’ve seen since February, and it’s inclusion into a 12-month moving average indicates that shipments have moved from contraction to expansion mode.
July is the fifth month in 2020 to post gains over 2019 and the year is now up 6% over last year.
Our model is forecasting 1,347 home shipments for August and from our survey work with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M, we expect run rates have increased and that August could easily beat the forecast again.
Next month’s year-over-year comparison will pit a 21-day production month against a 22-day August of 2019, so the comparison could show declines simply from the change in work days.
|Total for July:||572||617||1,189|
|Change from June (%):||-7.3%||-13%||-10.3%|
|Change from June (Units):||-45||-92||-137|
|Change from July of 2019 (%):||27.4%||1.3%||12.4%|
|Change from July of 2019 (Units):||123||8||131|
|Total for 2020 YTD:||4,327||4,911||9,238|
|Change from 2019 (%):||6.2%||6.2%||6.2%|
|Change from 2019 (Units):||251||288||539|
Here are the annual totals for manufactured home shipments in Texas from 2012 through 2019.