Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in January 2024
January Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers beat the forecast in January despite moving down a seasonally-adjusted -3.8% from December’s seasonally high pace. The 1,451 homes shipped was a significant increase over 2023 however, with shipments moving up +39.8% over January of last year.
On the demand side shipments finally started to outpace placements again in either October or November of 2023. We currently expect that aggregate inventory continued to rise through December and January as well.
The 12-month moving average for shipments continues to move upward. The 12-month moving average for shipments remains below where the 12-month moving average for retail sales is through October of 2023, but it looks like a cross could occur in February.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for January: | 713 | 738 | 1,451 |
| Change from December (Raw %): | 27.3% | 14.4% | 20.4% |
| Change from December (Raw Units): | 153 | 93 | 246 |
| Change from December (SA %): | 1% | -4.5% | -3.8% |
| Change from January of 2023 (%): | 41.5% | 38.2% | 39.8% |
| Change from January of 2023 (Units): | 209 | 204 | 413 |
January Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production was also down after seasonal-adjustment to December coming in -1.9% lower, but the raw total of 1,796 homes built was well above the forecast that had given too much weight to last year’s January pullback in run rates.
In comparison to January of 2023, total homes produced were up +35.8%.
Shipments to out of state locations remain elevated on a year-over-year basis.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for January: | 1,796 | 446 | 2,469 |
| Change from December (Raw %): | 23.3% | 34.3% | 20.7% |
| Change from December (Raw Units): | 339 | 114 | 423 |
| Change from December (SA %): | -1.9% | NA | -6% |
| Change from January of 2023 (%): | 35.8% | 28.9% | 34.3% |
| Change from January of 2023 (Units): | 473 | 100 | 631 |
February Outlook
The forecasting models have February shipments at 1,341 (+/- 248) and Texas factory production at 1,641 (+/- 279) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for February signaled further increases in run rates and 2024 was a leap year, take the overs.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for February.
Annual Totals
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moves up to 16,954 (+/- 3,114) and forecasted Texas plant production moves up to 21,848 (+/- 3,777).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 713 | 738 | 1,451 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 41.5% | 38.2% | 39.8% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 209 | 204 | 413 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2024 YTD: | 1,796 | 446 | 2,469 |
| Change from 2023 (%): | 35.8% | 28.9% | 34.3% |
| Change from 2023 (Units): | 473 | 100 | 631 |
Charts
In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.