Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in January 2023
January Shipments
After a slight uptick in December the deceleration resumed for manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers in January with the seasonally-adjusted total moving down -20.4% from the previous month and the raw total coming in -33.1% below January of 2022.
The 1,038 total homes shipped was a full -324 homes below the point forecast and landed outside of the 95% prediction interval as the model interpreted incorrectly that the downward trend was easing after last month’s data point.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for January: | 504 | 534 | 1,038 |
| Change from December (Raw %): | 1.2% | -12.2% | -6.1% |
| Change from December (Raw Units): | 6 | -74 | -68 |
| Change from December (SA %): | -10.9% | -18% | -20.4% |
| Change from January of 2022 (%): | -34.6% | -31.5% | -33.1% |
| Change from January of 2022 (Units): | -267 | -246 | -513 |
January Production
The story was similar for Texas manufactured housing plant production with the seasonally-adjusted total dropping -17.2% from the previous month and the raw total falling -37.6% from January of 2022.
Three different plants had January production levels come in more than 50 homes below their trend lines.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for January: | 1,323 | 346 | 1,838 |
| Change from December (Raw %): | -3.4% | 7.1% | -6.9% |
| Change from December (Raw Units): | -46 | 23 | -137 |
| Change from December (SA %): | -17.2% | NA | -23.6% |
| Change from January of 2022 (%): | -37.6% | -42% | -36.3% |
| Change from January of 2022 (Units): | -797 | -251 | -1049 |
February Outlook
The forecasting models have February shipments at 1,136 (+/- 213) and Texas factory production at 1,399 (+/- 244) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for February had run rates still declining on net. Take the under for both.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for February.
Annual Totals
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 moved much lower to 14,036 (+/- 2,592) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 17,715 (+/- 3,258). Note the large prediction intervals, but the mean forecasts are running below 2019 levels.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 504 | 534 | 1,038 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -34.6% | -31.5% | -33.1% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -267 | -246 | -513 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2023 YTD: | 1,323 | 346 | 1,838 |
| Change from 2022 (%): | -37.6% | -42% | -36.3% |
| Change from 2022 (Units): | -797 | -251 | -1,049 |
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