January shipments came in above forecasts as Texas plants continued to increase their production. The raw data shows a slight decrease from January of 2020, but there were two more weekdays for the month last year. The expansion in production matched the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey data.
The seasonally adjusted change for shipments from December was up 5.6%.
Texas total home floor production was right in line with 2020, though again on less business days. Production capacity had climbed back to pre-pandemic levels, but February saw Winter Storm Uri hit the state and MH production was undoubtedly impacted. Most manufacturers likely lost a week of production, but we’re hearing that working days were extended to try and make up for losses.
February is typically a month where shipments outpace sales so the disruption won’t help what are already lengthy backlogs and thin inventories.
Our forecast for February shipments is 1,364 (+/- 267), but the model does not account for the potential loss of production days. Take the under.
|Total for January:||647||811||1,458|
|Change from December (%):||14.7%||13.4%||14%|
|Change from December (Units):||83||96||179|
|Change from January of 2020 (%):||-5.3%||-1%||-2.9%|
|Change from January of 2020 (Units):||-36||-8||-44|
|Total for 2021 YTD:||647||811||1,458|
|Change from 2020 (%):||-5.3%||-1%||-2.9%|
|Change from 2020 (Units):||-36||-8||-44|
Here are the annual totals for manufactured home shipments in Texas from 2012 through 2020.