Manufactured home shipments started 2020 with a bang as both multi-section and single-section homes beat January of 2019 by a combined 18.5%.
While single-section homes had been running around the same levels as multi-sections the previous two months, multi-section shipments accelerated at a faster pace to come in 136 homes higher than single-wides.
The total of 1,502 homes shipped beats all months in 2019 save October, and the 819 multi-section homes shipped is the highest total in our 7+ years of data.
We’re going to start something new in 2020 and start publishing forecasts from some mathematical models we’ve developed. February ended with some macro uncertainty as coronavirus fears brought down equities and 10-year treasury yields, but we’re expecting February shipments to come in at around 1,365 homes.
A brief disclaimer, the chances of shipments hitting that number exactly are very slim, but given the past shipment data we have we would expect shipments to be centered around that point with the 95% confidence interval hitting plus or minus 250 homes from that point. If shipments come in above 1,365, the model would then incorporate that upward pull and give a more aggressive prediction for March.
For a baseline, the model predicted January’s total at 1,394 which was 108 homes below the actual.
|Total for January:||683||819||1,502|
|Change from December (%):||18.4%||35.1%||27%|
|Change from December (Units):||106||213||319|
|Change from January of 2019 (%):||9.3%||27.6%||18.5%|
|Change from January of 2019 (Units):||58||177||235|
August retail sales revisions have brought titles close to beating that month in shipments.
September and November are on pace, October is not, and December has a good shot.
Here are the annual totals for manufactured home shipments in Texas from 2012 through 2019.