Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in February 2024

February Shipments

Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers moved up a seasonally-adjusted +8.1% in February from the previous month. The 1,523 homes shipped was a +50.9% increase over February of 2023 and the second highest total home shipped count for the month in our now 13-year series.

The 12-month moving average for shipments should continue to move upward and is now above the trailing retail sales moving-average.

Total for February: 714 809 1,523
Change from January (Raw %): 0.1% 9.6% 5%
Change from January (Raw Units): 1 71 72
Change from January (SA %): 4.1% 9.5% 8.1%
Change from February of 2023 (%): 45.7% 55.9% 50.9%
Change from February of 2023 (Units): 224 290 514

View the Monthly Manufacturer Shipment Report.

February Production

Texas manufactured housing plant production came in well above the forecast moving up a seasonal-adjusted +12.9% in February compared to the previous month. The raw total of 1,953 homes was second only to 2022 like with shipments and represented an increase of +53.8%.

Shipments to out of state retailers remain elevated on a year-over-year basis.

Texas Plant ProductionTotalShipped Out of TXMin Floors
Total for February: 1,953 508 2,707
Change from January (Raw %): 8.7% 13.9% 9.6%
Change from January (Raw Units): 157 62 238
Change from January (SA %): 12.9% NA 14.3%
Change from February of 2023 (%): 53.8% 76.4% 52.4%
Change from February of 2023 (Units): 683 220 931

View the Monthly Manufacturer Shipment Report.

March Outlook

The forecasting models have March shipments at 1,686 (+/- 312) and Texas factory production at 2,096 (+/- 315) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for March signaled further increases in run rates, but the trend line for February might be slightly inflated from the addition leap year day of production, I’d take the under on both.

View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for March.

Annual Totals

The shipment total for 2024 is currently up +45.3% over 2023 and Texas plant production is up +44.6%.

The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2024 moves up to 18,188 (+/- 3,098) and forecasted Texas plant production moves up to 23,156 (+/- 3,529).

Total for 2024 YTD: 1,427 1,547 2,974
Change from 2023 (%): 43.6% 46.9% 45.3%
Change from 2023 (Units): 433 494 927
Texas Plant ProductionTotalShipped Out of TXMin Floors
Total for 2024 YTD: 3,749 954 5,176
Change from 2023 (%): 44.6% 50.5% 43.2%
Change from 2023 (Units): 1,156 320 1,562

View the Annual Manufacturer Shipment Report.


In this chart you can see that when the shipment moving-average crosses the retail sales moving-average a turn in shipments usually follows. The last downward cross occurred in June of 2019 and it’s not too hard to see that shipments were headed back up for the upward cross in March of 2020, right when COVID-19 hit and strangled production for several months. It is that unprecedented stretch of retail sales above shipments from June of 2019 through August of 2021 that I think best explains the huge expansion in shipments we see after that point that peaked in August and September of 2022.