Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in February 2022
February Shipments
Manufactured home shipments came in on the high side of the forecast in February rising a seasonally adjusted 2.0% from January as Texas manufacturers sent a larger share of production to Texas retailers for the month and shipments from out of state manufacturers moved up sharply.
The product mix hit its fourth straight month of single-section shipments and multi-section shipments coming in right around the same level.
The year-over-year comparison is inflated by the 2021 Winter storm disruptions.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for February: | 776 | 771 | 1,547 |
| Change from January (Raw %): | -0.9% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| Change from January (Raw Units): | -7 | 3 | -4 |
| Change from January (SA %): | 3% | 2.5% | 2% |
| Change from February of 2021 (%): | 34% | 25.8% | 29.8% |
| Change from February of 2021 (Units): | 197 | 158 | 355 |
February Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production for February also came in on the high side of the forecast but unlike shipments, compared to January production was down a seasonally adjusted -5.5%. Some of that decline is due to multi-section homes being a bit more of the mix compared to last month, and some of it is that the February 2021 production decline had over weighted the January seasonal factor last month, and a more normal output has revised last month’s seasonally adjusted peak total even higher. This effect will likely continue next month and I expect the seasonally adjusted total for February production to be revised up closer to a -1% difference with January.
The slight decline in production was in contrast with the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey results from last month.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for February: | 1,999 | 520 | 2,726 |
| Change from January (Raw %): | -5.7% | -12.9% | -5.2% |
| Change from January (Raw Units): | -121 | -77 | -149 |
| Change from January (SA %): | -5.5% | NA | -5.3% |
| Change from February of 2021 (%): | 29.7% | 27.5% | 28.3% |
| Change from February of 2021 (Units): | 458 | 112 | 602 |
March Outlook
The forecasting models have March shipments at 1,707 (+/- 332) and Texas plant production at 2,211 (+/- 374) homes.
The March year-over-year numbers will be interesting to see as the storm disruption may have shifted deliveries that otherwise would have been sent in February of 2021 to that month. Both March of this year and March of last year have the same expected number of production days though, and the point foreacasts would currently indicate slightly lower levels than last year.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey results for March showed a majority vote for increasing run rates over February, take the overs.
Annual Totals
With the inclusion of February data, 2022 is running roughly 17% over 2021.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments moved up to 18,576 (+/- 2,771) and forecasted Texas plant production moved up to 25,170 (+/- 2,495).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 1,559 | 1,539 | 3,098 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 27.2% | 8.1% | 16.9% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 333 | 115 | 448 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 4,119 | 1,117 | 5,601 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 20.4% | 24.8% | 17.2% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 697 | 222 | 824 |
Charts