Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in February 2021
February
Winter Storm Uri pulled manufactured home production and shipments down in February roughly 3.5 days below where it otherwise would have been had January’s run rates held constant. The halting of production brought shipments down to a seasonally adjusted -14.4% below the preceding month and they were down a full -17.8% from February of 2020. Manufacturers reported that they had extended workweeks to make up time lost from the storm in February’s Texas Manufactured Housing Survey, and given the week’s worth of utility outages, they definitely closed some of the gap.
The manufactured home plants in Texas saw their total production drop a seasonally adjusted -18.7%, and I have added data tables below for the monthly and annual production numbers for total Texas MH production. TDHCA does not record whether the homes shipped out of state are single or multi-sectioned, so the numbers are aggregated into total homes built, total homes shipped out of state, and the minimum number of floors. Because there is no sections data available for those out of state shipments, all out of state shipments are included as single floors.
The storm disruption brought shipments well below last month’s forecast, and pulled the point prediction for March down to 1,428 (+/- 280).
March is going to have 23 business days, and the model will naturally overreact to last month’s decline, take the over.
New for 2021 I’m also going to go way out on a limb and start forecasting annual shipments. I’m using the same exponential smoothing model that I use for my monthly forecasts but extending it out for the remainder of the year. To get a prediction interval I am running the model through 10,000 runs of a simulation for each of the remaining months of the year.
The current TMHA forecast for 2021 shipments is 15,886 (+/- 2,397).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for February: | 579 | 613 | 1,192 |
| Change from January (Raw %): | -10.5% | -24.4% | -18.2% |
| Change from January (Raw Units): | -68 | -198 | -266 |
| Change from January (SA %): | -7% | -18.9% | -14.4% |
| Change from February of 2020 (%): | -18.3% | -17.3% | -17.8% |
| Change from February of 2020 (Units): | -130 | -128 | -258 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for February: | 1,541 | 408 | 2,124 |
| Change from January (Raw %): | -18.1% | -16.2% | -19.9% |
| Change from January (Raw Units): | -340 | -79 | -529 |
| Change from January (SA %): | -18.7% | -9% | -21.1% |
| Change from February of 2020 (%): | -16.4% | -8.9% | -16.5% |
| Change from February of 2020 (Units): | -303 | -40 | -421 |
Annual Totals
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2021 YTD: | 1,226 | 1,424 | 2,650 |
| Change from 2020 (%): | -11.9% | -8.7% | -10.2% |
| Change from 2020 (Units): | -166 | -136 | -302 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2021 YTD: | 3,422 | 895 | 4,777 |
| Change from 2020 (%): | -8.5% | -2.8% | -8.2% |
| Change from 2020 (Units): | -319 | -26 | -429 |
Charts
Here are the annual totals for manufactured home shipments in Texas from 2012 through 2020.