Texas Manufactured Home Shipments in December 2022
December Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers continued to contract on a year-over-year basis in December with the 1,106 homes shipped coming in -22.1% below 2021 and -62 homes below the forecast.
The seasonally-adjusted total was +3% above last month’s low however, and marks the first month-over-month increase since June of 2022. Shipments were running at the same seasonally-adjusted level as they were during the supply-chain constrained December of 2020.
The product mix moved further into majority multi-section territory with those deliveries making up 55% of the total.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for December: | 498 | 608 | 1,106 |
| Change from November (Raw %): | -17.1% | -6.6% | -11.7% |
| Change from November (Raw Units): | -103 | -43 | -146 |
| Change from November (SA %): | 0.3% | 4% | 3% |
| Change from December of 2021 (%): | -31.3% | -12.4% | -22.1% |
| Change from December of 2021 (Units): | -227 | -86 | -313 |
December Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production of total homes fell in both the year-over-year comparison, down -27.5% from December of 2021, and on a seasonally-adjusted month-to-month basis down -0.8% from November. The 1,369 homes built was -243 homes below the forecast and once again just inside the bottom of the 95% prediction interval.
Looking at the seasonally-adjusted floor data production was flat, so the month-over-month decline in home production was a result of the product-mix movement. Seasonally-adjusted floor totals have been running sideways for all of Q4 and are trailing the run rates of the past two years.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for December: | 1,369 | 323 | 1,975 |
| Change from November (Raw %): | -17.4% | -27.4% | -15.2% |
| Change from November (Raw Units): | -288 | -122 | -354 |
| Change from November (SA %): | -0.8% | NA | 0% |
| Change from December of 2021 (%): | -27.5% | -39.5% | -22.1% |
| Change from December of 2021 (Units): | -519 | -211 | -559 |
January Outlook
The forecasting models have January shipments at 1,362 (+/- 250) and Texas factory production at 1,758 (+/- 294) homes. The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) for that month has run rates declining once again. Take the under on production, shipments are a coin flip.
View the Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results for January.
Annual Totals
At the close of the year manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers finished 2022 up +8.1% over 2021 and Texas manufactured housing factory production was up +6.9%.
The annual shipment total of 19,106 homes was the highest since 2001, and single-section shipments beat multi-section shipments for the first time since 2018.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2023 starts at 16,070 (+/- 3,211) and forecasted Texas plant production starts at 20,962 (+/- 3,623). Note the large prediction intervals, but the mean forecasts are just slightly above 2020 levels.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 9,594 | 9,512 | 19,106 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 17.4% | 0% | 8.1% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,421 | 4 | 1,425 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2022 YTD: | 25,107 | 6,664 | 34,378 |
| Change from 2021 (%): | 6.9% | 3.1% | 5.6% |
| Change from 2021 (Units): | 1,629 | 202 | 1,811 |
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