Texas Manufactured Home Shipments Report September 2025 - Market Analysis & Data
Rob Ripperda
September Shipments
Manufactured home shipments to Texas retailers continued to slow in September moving down a seasonally-adjusted -3.8% from the previous month and down -6.1% on the raw total from September of 2024.
The 1,380 total homes shipped for the month was just 36 homes below the point forecast from last month which was in line with the production decline reported by the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS).
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 537 | 843 | 1,380 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -3.9% | -0.6% | -1.9% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -22 | -5 | -27 |
| Change from August (SA %): | -8.5% | 1.3% | -3.8% |
| Change from September of 2024 (%): | -15.7% | 1.2% | -6.1% |
| Change from September of 2024 (Units): | -100 | 10 | -90 |
Monthly Manufacturer Shipments
September Production
Texas manufactured housing plant production moved down a seasonally-adjusted -1.3% in September from the previous month in total number of homes produced and down -1.5% when looking at the minimum number of floors that were built.
The 1,809 homes produced was just two homes below last month’s point forecast and represented a -2.9% year-over-year decrease from August of 2024. The floor data was even closer down just 47 floors to 2024, but it’s important to note that there was one additional production day this year in 2025. Typically we see a production boost in September, this year manufacturers held the line where they were.
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for September: | 1,809 | 527 | 2,579 |
| Change from August (Raw %): | -0.5% | 3.1% | -0.3% |
| Change from August (Raw Units): | -9 | 16 | -8 |
| Change from August (SA %): | -1.3% | NA | -1.5% |
| Change from September of 2024 (%): | -2.9% | 9.3% | -1.8% |
| Change from September of 2024 (Units): | -54 | 45 | -47 |
Monthly Manufacturer Shipments
October Outlook
The forecasting models have October shipments at 1,510 (+/- 213) and Texas factory production at 1,963 (+/- 223) homes.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) signaled lower run rates in October.
Take the under on both forecasts.
Texas Manufactured Home Survey Results
Annual Totals
The shipment total for the year has now moved -0.9% below 2024 and Texas plant total home production moved down -0.6%. The minimum floors built year-over-year remains positive up +1.1% over 2024.
The forecast for annual Texas shipments in 2025 moved down to 17,537 (+/- 652) and forecasted Texas plant production moved down to 22,418 (+/- 758).
Those forecasts would put shipments to Texas retailers down -3.5% for the year compared to 2024, and down only -1.7% for total production.
| Shipments | Singles | Multis | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2025 YTD: | 5,401 | 8,018 | 13,419 |
| Change from 2024 (%): | -10.4% | 6.8% | -0.9% |
| Change from 2024 (Units): | -630 | 508 | -122 |
| Texas Plant Production | Total | Shipped Out of TX | Min Floors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total for 2025 YTD: | 17,072 | 4,610 | 24,383 |
| Change from 2024 (%): | -0.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Change from 2024 (Units): | -110 | 127 | 271 |
Charts
July 2025 appears to be the 12-month moving average peak for shipments this production cycle. The shift in title guidelines is pushing the retail sales moving-average lower for May and June, that should start to move back upward as sales get titled with a later date of transfer than they would have a year ago.